December 2023 summary
Metro Vancouver housing market shows resilience in 2023, ending the year in balanced territory
Metro Vancouver’s housing market closed out 2023 with balanced market conditions, but the year-end totals mask a story of surprising resilience in the face of the highest borrowing costs seen in over a decade.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 26,249 in 2023, a 10.3 per cent decrease from the 29,261 sales recorded in 2022, and a 41.5 per cent decrease from the 44,884 sales in 2021.
Last year’s sales total was 23.4 per cent below the 10-year annual sales average (34,272).
“You could miss it by just looking at the year-end totals, but 2023 was a strong year for the Metro Vancouver housing market considering that mortgage rates were the highest they’ve been in over a decade,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “In our 2023 forecast, we called for modest price increases throughout the year while most other forecasters were predicting price declines. The fact that we ended the year with five-per-cent-plus gains in home prices across all market segments demonstrates that Metro Vancouver remains an attractive and desirable destination, and elevated borrowing costs alone aren’t enough to dissuade buyers determined to get into this market.”
Properties listed on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver totalled 50,893 in 2023. This represents a 7.5 per cent decrease compared to the 55,047 properties listed in 2022. This was 20.2 per cent below the 63,761 properties listed in 2021.
The total number of properties listed last year was 10.5 per cent below the region’s 10-year total annual average of (56,868).
Currently, the total number of homes listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,802, a 13 per cent increase compared to December 2022 (7,791). This is 0.3 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (8,772).
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,168,700. This represents a five per cent increase over December 2022 and a 1.4 per cent decrease compared to November 2023.
“Ultimately, the story of 2023 is one of too few homes available relative to the pool of willing and qualified buyers,” Lis said. “Sellers were reluctant to list their properties early in the year, which led to fewer sales than usual coming out of the gate. But this also led to near record-low inventory levels in the spring, which put upward pressure on prices as buyers competed for the scarce few homes available.”
“Looking back on the year, it’s hard not to wonder how we’d be closing out 2023 if mortgage rates had been a few per cent lower than they were. And it looks like we might get some insight into that question in 2024, as bond markets and professional forecasters are projecting lower borrowing costs are likely to come, with modest rate cuts expected in the first half of the New Year.”
December 2022
Post Covid Market, and dealing with all the excesses caused by Covid Policies:
January, February and March started out like a rocket ship. I had helped Buy or Sell a stunning $7.0 Million in Real Estate in three months, and the summer was looking awesome. Then April came along with the Interest Rate changes (Fastest increase in our history) The war in Ukraine, and all the Saber Rattling over the Taiwan Strait. By the end of 2022, a full blown Banking Crises was already baked into the mix. Europe is re-arming, Putin is threatening Nuclear Strikes, and new best friend, Xi Jinping is talking New World Order.
The Banking stress test is now a whopping 7.25%. If you survive that, the cost of borrowing $1.0 Million has gone from $4500/Month to over $6000/Month. You would think that would finally be the knockout blow for the Vancouver market? But banks are allowing the majority of their Variable Rate Mortgage clients to increase their Amortizations, as long there is room. Up to 80% of their equity. Most people have hunkered down, so sales are dropping, inventory is dropping, and of course Prices are holding firm as Buyer’s look at less and less inventory to choose from. We still have Multi- Offer situations as Buyer’s fight over the better Properties. If you want a deal in this Market you need to look East as the Lower Mainland Real Estate is teetering on a 20% correction. Even Chilliwac was selling for over $1.0 Mil..
Stay tuned for 2023….
SEPTEMBER 30,2021
China’s Property Woes
What are the systemic risks of an Evergrande collapse?
The debacle is a test of Xi Jinping’s commitment to reshaping the economy
CHINA’S FINANCIAL authorities are honing a new skill: the “marketised default”—or an orderly market exit and well-managed restructuring for troubled companies. The term has surfaced in government documents and local media as of late, as regulators become adept at managing larger, more frequent and highly complex defaults. They have had some successes. Evergrande, a massive Chinese property developer on the brink of collapse, is proving to be anything but. The company, the world’s most indebted property firm with $300bn in liabilities, said on September 22nd that it had come to an agreement with bondholders on a coupon payment on an onshore bond due this week, easing some fears of an imminent collapse. Analysts had been expecting the company to default on both yuan- and dollar-denominated interest payments. The fate of the dollar-bond payments, also due September 23rd, is unclear. Far from being a well-managed process, Evergrande’s distress has been roiling markets around the globe and dragging down other weak developers. Major indices in Europe and America fell on September 20th as Evergrande’s situation appeared to worsen. Yields on the bonds of a number of struggling Chinese developers have soared.
CONTAGION
Hong Kong-traded shares in one large Shanghai-based group, Sinic Holdings, collapsed by nearly 90% on September 20th on fears that it, too, would fail to repay a bond due in October. R&F Properties, another highly indebted group, has said it will raise up to $2.5bn by borrowing cash from company executives and selling a property project. Several financial institutions with high exposure to the property sector have suffered falls in their market value. The price of iron ore fell below $100 per tonne on September 20th for the first time in a year on fears that Chinese homebuilders will construct fewer properties. The crackdown on developer debt is not an isolated event but one of several campaigns Xi Jinping, China’s president, is using to remould the country. A sweeping clampdown on internet-technology companies has wiped out more than $1trn in shareholder value since early this year. A number of New York-listed Chinese companies have seen their entire business models destroyed. These changes, along with the goal of improving housing affordability and ridding the property market of speculation, have been encapsulated by Mr Xi in the phrase “common prosperity”. “A regime shift is occurring without necessarily the markets fully comprehending the enormous underlying change to the structure of the economy,” said Sean Darby of Jefferies, an investment bank. Perhaps the biggest contagion risk flaring up in the market is not that posed by Evergrande itself but by Mr Xi’s unyielding crackdown on leverage. In this sense Evergrande is not the root cause of the troubles in China’s property sector, says Logan Wright of Rhodium Group, a research firm. Instead it is a symptom of the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to reshape the nature of the market. Following the assault on China’s vibrant tech sector Mr Xi has given analysts every reason to believe he intends to see this deleveraging campaign through, says Mr Wright. These implications are bigger than the current market rout. China’s property sector accounts for 20-25% of its economy. An extended campaign against developer debt could significantly lower China’s growth prospects, says Tommy Wu of Oxford Economics, a research firm. But such a strategy could lead to much greater economic and financial turmoil further down the road. Regulators may eventually be forced to bail out the property industry along with the financial one, Mr Wu says. Such a worst-case scenario poses concerns far beyond the fate of Evergrande, and raises questions over where Mr Xi’s relentless and wide-reaching campaigns are leading China.
ARTICLE FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT:
Spring 2021
Wow one year into this Covid crisis. Once you read the Real Estate Boards numbers below you will think you're on another planet. Very strong sales, everyone has $2.5 Million, so when a decent listing comes on in Kits or Pt Grey under $3.0 Mil you can count on three or four offers. Even where we live in the Southland’s Musqueam Lease Lands, sales on the Prepaid side are hitting $2.0 Million and on the Non-Prepaid Side our first $1.2 Million dollar sale. (R2495782) People are waking up to the FACT that we won the court case in 2015, we were paid Damages for the $2.0 Million we paid to take the First Nations to Court, and for the re-set in 2035 and 2055 there is now a formula. Wishful thinking got blown up in court and actual Comparable Market Analysis with the Pre-paid Side won the day. Read the blog from our Board below and lets hope Ottawa keeps the money Bazooka firing, and Interest rates in the Toilet
Supply response emerges in Metro Vancouver’s active housing market
Home sellers have become increasingly active in Metro Vancouver’s housing market this spring in response to heightened demand and rising home values that have materialized during the pandemic. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 4,908 in April 2021, a 342.6 per cent increase from the 1,109 sales recorded in April 2020, and a 14 per cent decrease from the 5,708 homes sold in March 2021. Last month’s sales were 56.2 per cent above the 10-year April sales average and is the highest total on record for the month.
"Our housing market has changed considerably from one year ago when COVID-19 concerns brought activity to a near standstill,” Keith Stewart, REBGV’s economist said. “This was followed by a well-documented spike in home buyer demand across the region. So far this spring, we’ve seen a corresponding supply response from home sellers."
There were 7,938 detached, attached and apartment homes newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in April 2021. This represents a 243.2 per cent increase compared to the 2,313 homes listed in April 2020, a 4.2 per cent decrease compared to March 2021 when 8,287 homes were listed and is the highest new listing total ever recorded in the region in April.
"While homes are now being listed at record levels, more supply is needed to meet today's demand and help market conditions achieve greater balance," Stewart said.
The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 10,245, a 9.1 per cent increase compared to April 2020 (9,389) and a 12 per cent increase compared to March 2021 (9,145). Today’s active listings total is 11.2 per cent below the 10-year April average. For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for April 2021 is 47.9 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 37.4 per cent for detached homes, 70 per cent for townhomes, and 51.5 per cent for apartments. Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.
“Record low interest rates, increased household savings, a strengthening economy and a continued focus on living space during the pandemic are all factors that are helping to bolster demand while steady price growth is encouraging more sellers to list their homes,” Stewart said.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,152,600. This represents a 12 per cent increase over April 2020 and a 2.6 per cent increase compared to March 2021.
"With our market at record activity in recent months, and with the continued safety risk that COVID-19 poses, REALTORS® remain focused on helping their clients make sound and responsible buying and selling decisions today while continuing to strictly follow the pandemic safety protocols established for real estate in our province," Taylor Biggar, REBGV Chair said.
Sales of detached homes in April 2021 reached 1,655, a 326.5 per cent increase from the 388 detached sales recorded in April 2020. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,755,500. This represents a 20.9 per cent increase from last year and a 3.2 per cent increase compared to March 2021.
Sales of apartment homes reached 2,289 in April 2021, a 355.1 per cent increase compared to the 503 sales in April 2020. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $729,600. This represents a 5.9 per cent increase from April 2020 and a 1.9 per cent increase compared to March 2021.
Attached home sales in April 2021 totalled 964, a 342.2 per cent increase compared to the 218 sales in April 2020. The benchmark price of an attached home is $900,900. This represents a 13.9 per cent increase from April 2020 and a 3.3 per cent increase compared to March 2021.
Summer of 2020
Wow if ever there was an update needed, it is this update on the last 4 months. It’s like the landing on the Moon in the 60’s, or 911. A world changing event that you just know leaves us with the feeling that nothing will ever be quite the same. For me it came at a time when I thought things just couldn’t get any worse. I was working with some excellent clients in the final phase of an Investment Condo purchase. A weird building at 438 Seymour that seems like a no brainer for an investment. Location, three elevators, Location, 1 Secure parking spot downtown, Location, way high up on the 25th floor, so some great morning views to the North East, East and South East. Then three days before closing the suite above had a massive water leak. That was March 7th. Long story short we just started to get the water issues sorted out, and Covid-19 struck. I never thought I would praise a Property Manager, but Klaus I thank you from the bottom of my heart. You took a load off of me I couldn’t carry, and I know you are still dealing with the fallout now, in late June. Thank you my friend.
So where does this leave us? For those of us working on the West Side of Vancouver it seems a little surreal. Pent-up demand seems to be back with a vengeance. Inventory is flooding back on the market, and all the good stuff is being bought up, even though prices remain firm. Who would have expected that? And can it last? The Federal and Provincial Governments have come at this crises with a bazooka full of cash, and in my opinion have put our kids future at risk. But maybe the alternative was worse? I always wonder what they’re not telling us. Onward and upward!
I highly recommend reading Steve Saretsky’s weekly Newsletter. His “Three Things I’m Watching” will usually send a chill up and down your spine. And below I have included a few articles and headlines from the Globe and Mail. All I can say is hug your kids everyday, brush off your bucket list, and remember what my father used to say, “Tomorrow Never Comes”
From the Globe and Mail’s Rob Carrick (June 2020)
The days after the last recession turned out to be an awesome time to get into the housing market. History will not repeat. Whether the housing market goes up, down or sideways when the pandemic fades, the opportunity for major price appreciation in the years ahead is limited. All the borrowing people did in the past dozen years doesn’t leave room to fuel another housing boom. If we use the Toronto market as a proxy, home buying sentiment looks strong. On real estate blogs and social media, there are stories this month about bidding wars resuming. But there simply isn’t enough juice in the economy to sustain the kind of housing rally we saw in the years after the 2008-09 recession.
Here are five statistics that build this case:
$1.77
For every dollar of household after-tax income in Canada, there’s $1.77 in debt. Although this is a widely used indicator of national indebtedness, it’s kind of abstract. Maybe this will help add some context: At the end of 2007, there was $1.44 in debt for every dollar of income. Countries with lower debt-to-disposable-income ratios than Canada include the United States, Germany, Britain, Italy, Spain, Japan, France, Brazil and New Zealand, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. A few countries have higher household debt levels than us – but do we really want to be in that group after a pandemic that has exposed how vulnerable the indebted are to economic disruptions?
734,000
That’s the number of people who had arranged with their bank as of June to either defer or skip mortgage payments as a result of the pandemic. It represents 15 per cent of mortgages issued by banks. These deferrals were initially offered for up to six months, but they could be extended. Even if they are, it seems unlikely that every deferred mortgage will resume payments in due course. Some people won’t be able to afford their houses as a result of job or income losses, and may be forced to sell. Are there enough eager buyers to soak up all these distressed sales and drive prices higher? Read the next stat to find out why this is unlikely.
67 per cent
In a late May survey commissioned by the credit-monitoring company TransUnion, two-thirds of people said they were concerned about their ability to pay their current bills and loans. The economic lockdown used to fight the pandemic has hit younger, lower-income people hardest. But TransUnion’s survey results suggest the pandemic has had a broad enough effect to create financial uncertainty in a majority of households. The same survey found that 55 per cent of people feel their household income has been affected by the pandemic. Yes, some buyers are actively looking for houses now. But how many people are lined up behind them to buy in the months ahead? The TransUnion data suggest the queue might not be very long.
5.86 million
That’s the number of Canadians assessed as being financially resilient by a consulting firm that specializes in analyzing anxiety levels about money. Seymour Management Consulting said there are 25.8 million Canadians between the ages of 18 and 70, so the financially resilient cohort represents 22.7 per cent of the total. Another 27 per cent were approaching resilience and the rest were either financially vulnerable or extremely vulnerable. Not an inspiring base for building a multiyear rally in home prices.
42.1 per cent
This is the unemployment rate in May for 20- to 24-year-olds returning to school – it compares with a rate of 10.8 per cent in May, 2019. Not many people in the age bracket buy houses, right? But they will, later on. The question is, how much later? Even with the Canada Emergency Student Benefit of $1,250 per four-week period from May through August, many students are going to be financially disadvantaged by a jobless summer. Some will need to increase their student loans as a result or delay completion of their degrees, measures that could postpone future home buying by a few years. That’s a momentum problem for a housing market that needs first-time buyers to keep things moving.
*Economist Mohamed El-Erian says that the coronavirus shutdown will create a buyer's market for real estate, offset by reduced incomes putting stress on the whole sector
And Yet: Other Globe Articles in June 2020
* Pandemic no obstacle for some Toronto-area home buyers
*Not even the pandemic slowed Vancouver real estate
February 2020 Update
Rental housing: where Seattle thrives, Vancouver stumbles
This is a great article I stumbled upon in the 2019 “Goodman Report”. It not only outlines the problem with Developers who want to take advantage of the new Rental Only Development Perks, but in general it outlines the challenges for all Developers who are waiting for two and three years to get their projects through the approval process at City Hall. The several points on how City Hall is in full sabotage mode for any new supply is right on the money. I don’t know how any Developer can withstand all these headwinds. If they (Local Developers) actually stop building, the only people with deep enough pockets to build new stock will be the Local and Provincial Governments, or even worse the Feds. Anyone who has been to Russia or any Country that was part of the old Soviet Block knows what Government Housing looks like. Can’t you see the DTES / Oppenheimer zoning district lined with Grey 6 story row housing, blankets and diapers hanging out the windows, all paid for by the City’s generous tax payers.
Google “Down Zoning” and Vote NDP for more.
Read On:
Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart apparently had a very productive visit to Seattle a couple of weeks ago. In an interview during his visit the mayor said he would like “to get a better understanding of how Seattle has built so much rental housing.”
The Mayor is right to be curious: Seattle built 17,450 purpose-built rental units in 2018. A Seattle Times article from earlier this year gave telling examples of landlords offering incentives to tenants. One struck me in particular: “2 months free plus a $1,000 gift card if you move in within 1 week!”
Compare this to the near-zero vacancy rate in Vancouver, where the Goodman Report counted only 1,364 new rental units were built in the same year. Seattle is bigger than Vancouver for sure, but it’s not 13 times bigger!
So Mayor Stewart is correct to be curious, but he is incorrect to look for the answer in Seattle. The 17,450 new rental units is the normal and expected free market response to rising demand.
So instead of asking how Seattle has built so much rental housing, the Mayor should be asking what we have done in Vancouver to prevent the same outcome.
It’s not rocket science. When the demand for apples goes up, normal people plant more trees. It takes a few years, but sooner or later there’s enough apples to meet the higher demand. Perhaps even enough to ship some to China and add capital to the local orchard.
But when the demand for any housing, especially rental housing, in Vancouver increases, we don’t build more.
On the contrary, we (City Hall) does everything they can to sabotage new supply:
• Rent control
• Rental-only zoning used to “downzone”
• 12-year old moratorium on the demolition of rental buildings in Vancouver
• Sales taxes on land purchase and on construction costs
• School Tax on development land while waiting for permits
• Years-long development review process • Hostile City Councilors
It’s hard to pick the biggest villain from the above long list, but let’s start with rent control. A recent paper on the topic published in the American Economic Review, the most prestigious economics journal, uses data from San Francisco to find that: “In the long run, landlords’ substitution toward owner-occupied and newly constructed rental housing not only lowered the supply of rental housing in the city, but also shifted the city’s housing supply toward less affordable types of housing that likely cater to the tastes of higher income individuals.” The authors further conclude: “Taking all of these points together, it appears rent control has actually contributed to the gentrification of San Francisco, the exact opposite of the policy’s intended goal.”
It’s not just rent control. The provincial government gave cities the power to introduce rental-only zoning. It was meant to ensure that new projects that promise to provide rental units, perhaps in exchange for a density bonus, keep their promise. This was supposed to be a way to incentivize new purpose-built rental development. Instead, cities like Burnaby, New Westminster, and Victoria are considering or have already implemented rental-only zoning on existing buildings, without the consent of the owners and without an appropriate density bonus. This has exactly the opposite effect of the intended goal – it turns rental housing into a toxic asset. Most investors like to keep their capital away from such assets. The companies which seek them out are called “vulture funds.” As the name suggests, they do not make for good landlords.
Ok, so we abuse current landlords because they are stuck with us. They can fume and complain, likely sell, but they cannot move their buildings elsewhere.
What really puzzles me is why we treat new development projects the same way. Rental-only zoning, even just the possibility of it, not only expropriates from the current owners but also ensures that we will not get a rental building on any property that does not already have one. Why would anyone in their right mind risk such a severe down-zoning of their land? So the only possibility for an increase in rental supply is to re-develop existing rental buildings. But that has also been ruled out by a 12-year old moratorium on demolishing rental buildings that covers over 95% of Vancouver. In other words, we can neither add new rental buildings nor redevelop existing ones.
Even if somebody somehow manages to make a rental project work (how is beyond me), we hold their application at City Hall for years. A recent Altus Group report shows that about 1/3rd of units in development applications in Vancouver submitted in 2016 are still under review in 2019. Nearly 3⁄4 of applications submitted in 2017 are still under review two years later.
So you wait two, three, or more years for your development application to get reviewed, during which time you’re paying interest on the land purchase, property taxes, and even the so-called School Tax on the entire property. Sooner or later, usually much later, you get to City Council for final approval. That’s when you get yet another insult. Your project gets questioned, and possibly denied, because market rents are too high! You read that right – we block new rental housing because we don’t have enough rental housing. This doesn’t just defy basic economics; it defies basic common sense.
So, Mayor Stewart, it is not surprising that Seattle got 17,450 new purpose-built rental units in 2018. What is surprising is that Vancouver got 1,364 new units given how we treat current and new landlords at both the provincial and the municipal level. If we keep this up, we’ll get zero next time.
Andrey Pavlov, Ph.d. Professor of Finance
Beedie School of Business, Simon Fraser University
Update: August 2019
It’s been an interesting summer. Some of my listings that have been difficult to sell have suddenly found a Buyer. On W39th the Open Houses have been busy thru July, with a Buyer showing up mid-month. One thing I noticed is the Chinese Buyers all of a sudden spoke perfect English. That’s a bonus for any unilingual Realtor, as the communications opens right up. I found that these new Buyers are from Hong Kong. They know what is coming down the pipe for the locals as the Mainland Government pushes into their Territory. This could be the tip of the Iceberg for Cities like Vancouver, Toronto , Sydney and London. Stay Tuned..
Home sales increase in July
Home buyer demand picked up across Metro Vancouver last month, making July, a traditionally quieter month in real estate, the second highest selling month so far this year.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,557 in July 2019, a 23.5 per cent increase from the 2,070 sales recorded in July 2018, and a 23.1 per cent increase from the 2,077 homes sold in June 2019.
Last month’s sales were 7.8 per cent below the 10-year July sales average.
“While home sale activity remains below long-term averages, we saw an increase in sales in July compared to the less active spring we experienced,” Ashley Smith, REBGV president said. “Those looking to buy today continue to benefit from low interest rates, increased selection, and reduced prices compared to the heated market a few years ago.”
There were 4,613 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in July 2019. This represents a 3.3 per cent decrease compared to the 4,770 homes listed in July 2018 and a 2.9 per cent decrease compared to June 2019 when 4,751 homes were listed.
The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 14,240, a 17.3 per cent increase compared to July 2018 (12,137) and a 4.9 per cent decrease compared to June 2019 (14,968).
For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for July 2019 is 18 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 13.5 per cent for detached homes, 20 per cent for townhomes, and 22 per cent for apartments.
Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.
“To better understand conditions in your property type or neighbourhood of choice, it’s important to work with your local REALTOR®. They can help you develop a strategy to reach your long-term real estate goals,“ Smith said.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $995,200. This represents a 9.4 per cent decrease over July 2018 and a 0.3 per cent decrease compared to June 2019.
Sales of detached homes in July 2019 reached 841, a 32 per cent increase from the 637 detached sales recorded in July 2018. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,417,000. This represents a 10.5 per cent decrease from July 2018, and a 0.5 per cent decrease compared to June 2019.
Sales of apartment homes reached 1,243 in July 2019, a 15.2 per cent increase compared to the 1,079 sales in July 2018. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $653,200. This represents an 8.8 per cent decrease from July 2018, and a 0.2 per cent decrease compared to June 2019.
Attached home sales in July 2019 totalled 473, a 33.6 per cent increase compared to the 354 sales in July 2018. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $770,000. This represents a nine per cent decrease from July 2018, and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to June 2019.
Spring 2019:
Numbers speak for them selves in this Spring Market.
- In Vancouver home sales across all property types fell 8% year-over-year, marking the slowest May since the year 2000.
- May saw a significant rise in home sales on a month over month basis which has provided some encouragement that the steep drop in sales volumes may be stabilizing.
- Mortgage Rates continue to fall amidst the recent plunge in global bond yields with further suggestions that the Bank of Canada may need to cut rates sooner than later. We are seeing 5 year mortgage rates hovering around 3% now. (Now Below)
- Vancouver Detached sales remained at a 28 year low in May. This pushed prices lower, the MLS Benchmark noted prices have tumbled 13.6% from last year.
- Developers continue to put projects on hold given the noted weakness at pre-sale centres across Greater Vancouver. This also resulted in first quarter land sales dropping nearly 50% from last year.
Read below and fasten your seat belts! (MY thanks to : Saretsky’s Report)
Vancouver developer Ledingham McAllister is putting on hold the launch of pre-sales for three high-rise, transit-hub condo towers in Burnaby and Coquitlam, and is considering a pause on a fourth.
The total value of the projects — Sydney, Highpoint, Azure and possibly another — is around $1.2 billion, according to company president and CEO Ward McAllister. The buildings range from 20 to over 50 storeys and include market, non-market and rental units.
McAllister pointed to a dramatic slow-down in general pre-sales, beginning last October, and estimates sales volumes have dropped by about 70 per cent.
There has been evidence that smaller, newer developers are throwing in the towel and selling land instead of riding out an increasingly tough market. And the development industry has been vocal about bureaucratic delays getting in the way of building units that will be much needed once buyers return.
Ledingham McAllister, which is an experienced and prolific builder of multi-family homes going back to the mid-1980s, is pulling back on pre-sales for projects that all “have zoning and building permits. There are brochures printed and display centres that have been built for them,” said McAllister.
The projects need to be about 50 per cent pre-sold in order to get bank financing, said McAllister, citing a threshold that is already slightly lower than the more commonly cited 75 to 80 per cent level.
And there is a clock that starts ticking as soon as pre-sales for a project open, said Jon Stovell, who is board chair of the Urban Development Institute, which represents developers.
By law, according to the provincial Real Estate Development Marketing Act, developers have to complete pre-sales within nine months. After that, they must cease marketing.
“So, developers are considering, ‘Maybe I shouldn’t launch now, if buyers are sitting on the sidelines,’” said Stovell.
Matthew Boukall, a vice president at Altus Group, has been tracking over 12 projects across the Vancouver market that “we anticipated launching either late in 2018 or early 2019 that have either delayed their opening date or shifted their marketing message to be coming soon. Out of the 12 projects, at least four have development permit approval or conditional approval, which represents over 4,000 units that we were expecting to come to market, with about 4,300 of them launching between January 1 and June 1, 2019.”
To compare, about 8,700 units were brought to market in the same period in 2018.
“It’s not like it’s never happened before,” said Hani Lammam, executive vice-president at Vancouver-based Cressey Development, citing past downturns such as in 2008. “It’s happening. We went from being an overheated market to, suddenly, a market where demand evaporated.”
“It’s simply that the average buyer is very, very concerned. There’s so much uncertainty,” said McAllister. “They’re not interested. If they buy a unit for $500,000 to $600,000 and it’s worth less later, and they are borrowing from mom and dad, or grandparents, to put down the deposit, they can’t afford to lose it.”
Pre-sales involve convincing a “significant number of people to buy, two or three years out. For the end user, someone who wants to live in it, they don’t know where they will be so far away (in time),” said Lammam. “We’ve relied on investors, who have an easier bet. A condo is a good investment. They can sell or rent it. It’s more a business decision, not a life one.”
Investors bridged the gap and made money by taking on risk, said Lammam.
The flip side is that investors were making a lot of money as prices skyrocketed. But prices were becoming unaffordable for end users, prompting various levels of government to bring in measures that have stifled demand.
On the other hand, McAllister said, “underlying things is that there is so much stimulus in the market. There are 50,000 people projected to move here. Jobs have grown. Interest rates are low. This is a beautiful place to live. There is very little finished inventory.”
Newsletter & Opinions From:
"The Goodman Report"
Vancouver January 2019
GOODMAN SETS THE RECORD STRAIGHT:
9 MYTHS ABOUT VANCOUVER’S RENTAL MARKET
With all the upheavals in rental housing right now, there are many myths being bandied about. When industry spokespeople talk about the realities of creating and maintaining rental supply, they’re often accused of fear-mongering. We beg to differ—it’s time to separate fact from fiction.
At the Goodman Report, we’ve come up with a number of myth-busters to help the industry, the media, the community and Vancouver City Council over the learning curve on the hard truths of supplying rental housing.
Let’s be clear: we completely empathize with Vancouver tenants in their pursuit of affordable rentals. Since 1983, we have advocated for a healthy rental market that benefits renters and landlords alike. We understand the significant impact that displacement can have on mental and physical health, especially for seniors, people with disabilities, low-income households and families with young children. The problem is how to enable a flow of building supply that serves the diversity of tenants who need places to live. Whatever the issue, it’s important to consider the different sides involved in solving it.
MYTH 1: Net operating income is all profit in your pocket
Not true! It’s erroneous to think of a stabilized net operating income as what landlords pocket each year. Net operating income doesn’t take into account mortgage payments, which are subtracted each month. Also, many expenses are “normalized” and don’t reflect actual expenses. Additionally, net operating income doesn’t account for capital expenditures. As an example: in a typical lowrise, an elevator replacement can cost $200,000 and a new roof $100,000, taking away many years of profit from a typical building. Reality: it’s incorrect to use this figure as profit. Just ask around.
MYTH 2: Rent control is good
Not true! The City of Vancouver has suggested that research is mixed on the impact of rent control on construction and that economists have differing opinions. Most economists agree that results are not mixed: rent control is bad for tenants, existing rental housing stock and the case for building new rental. Some industry stakeholders commented, “When demand for rental exceeds supply … those with the fewest resources will have the most trouble securing good housing. Those with money find housing. Rent controls result in an even greater demand–supply imbalance, which makes (rental) housing more expensive.” Another landlord stated, “If you advocate for the poor and working class and those with lower incomes, then you should be the harshest critic of rent control, which has been shown to be a devastating scourge for the very groups whose lives and housing you want to improve. Rent control is their worst enemy, not a panacea.”
Rent control may have the effect of moving investors into markets where price controls are absent, such as short-term rentals including Airbnb. While the City has tried to clamp down on Airbnb to help alleviate the rental crisis, we believe that the attraction toward short-term rental is partly a function of draconian rent controls and regulations. It’s possible that this has been a factor explaining why 1,081 rental condos have left the rental market, as of the latest CMHC report.
Joshua Gottlieb, associate professor at the Vancouver School of Economics, UBC, has tweeted that “rent control does absolutely nothing for people who don't already have a secure rental, or who suffer long commutes, or need to move for other reasons.” He’s also tweeted, “The only effective way to protect renters is create competition among landlords. That means allowing rental housing construction.” He predicts that the Province’s new limitation of allowable rent increases to the cost of inflation “will do the opposite: discourage construction, which reduces competition. Renters will suffer – via low quality instead of prices.”
MYTH 3: Vacancy control will help renters in the long term
Not true! Vacancy control is a form of rent control that’s linked to a unit rather than a tenant, meaning that landlords cannot raise rents between tenancies. Vacancy control is a recipe for deterioration of rental stock and likely means the removal of non-traditional rentals (condos, suites in homes, etc.) from the rental pool, since it takes away from margins that are small to begin with. Think of a rent of $900 for a 2-bedroom unit staying the same once the tenant leaves. It also hurts anyone else who wants to move in, because no money will be spent on upkeep. Imagine a world where a unit finally comes up for lease but the rent stays the same from 15 years ago. You’d see 200 people lined up for the unit advertised, only to find that it’s in terrible condition.
MYTH 4: Vacancy control doesn’t affect new construction, so developers must be lying about rental projects being cancelled
Not true! At the time of occupancy for a new building, you may lease your unit at the market rate (or in some cases a capped rental rate based on, say, the Rental 100 program). With vacancy control, however, your increase is negligible moving forward. Vacancy control freezes revenue in perpetuity with no opportunity to recover ever-increasing expenses. Rental growth has already decreased as the Province has retracted what it calls the “extra 2%.” This proposed “tying rent to the suite” would further erode property value. While this might be celebrated by some, it ensures that a project is unlikely to be financed or built, especially given rising costs. Without new rentals, vacancy rates won’t budge.
In fact, this fall, a new survey by UDI of 30 leading rental builders has indicated that restrictive new government policies have placed 12,631 planned new units at significant risk of delay or cancellation across B.C.
MYTH 5: Inclusionary zoning for rental will help
It won’t. Market rental projects are already at risk of not being financially viable. We’re at critical vacancy levels that require a significant and immediate infusion of new supply. Accelerated construction costs, processing delays, rising interest rates, increasing city fees, rising property and provincial taxes, and utility cost increases add up to death by a thousand cuts. Based on past performance, the City is unlikely to allocate sufficient density to the inclusionary zoning areas. Result: no new rental project construction and certainly no new below-market rentals.
MYTH 6: All landlords are bad, greedy and seek to evict tenants
Not true! This is a willfully gross misstatement attributed to certain newly elected municipal politicians. There are 58,000 purpose-built rental units in the City of Vancouver. The vast majority of the owners run buildings well and have very positive experiences with their tenants.
MYTH 7: The City is really encouraging the construction of new rental stock
This assertion may feel true, but the numbers don’t support it. In fact, we argue that the City remains the biggest impediment to a healthy rental market. For 2018, only 12 projects have been completed, containing 1,364 new rental units. Did you know that in 1990, according to CMHC, the total purpose-built rental stock in Vancouver was 54,170 units? Fast forward 28 years to today, and the total stands at 58,130 units. This represents a paltry increase of 3,960 additional rentals in almost 3 decades, an average of 141 new units per year (0.26% yearly).
MYTH 8: The Empty Homes Tax would bring up to 20,000 units into the rental stock
Wrong again! This was the City of Vancouver’s projection. The reality is different and what’s actually happening is that a tax of $38 million is being collected, but only 2,500 empty homes have been counted. The program was based on a gross overestimate coming out of the former mayor’s political grandstanding. In fact, CMHC’s report from 2018 confirms that the City has actually lost 1,000 condo rental units from the stock this year. Perhaps the City could use the $38 million to provide a subsidy to tenants who are in need now! This would make a real difference today for those suffer from low vacancies arising from 40 years of virtually no new supply.
MYTH 9: Protecting tenants from renovictions and aggressive buy-outs enforces the Residential Tenancy Act (Motion B.10)
The recent motion in Council known as Motion B.10 contains a section requiring landlords to offer displaced tenants the opportunity to move out temporarily during renovations without their leases ending or their rent increasing (A.ii). It suggests that the Tenant Relocation and Protection Policy will be amended to require compliance with the Residential Tenancy Act. Well, landlords have to follow the act anyway (of course). So what’s the point of the motion? Even the City legal team indicated, “The TRP cannot require that landlords offer tenants the opportunity to temporarily move out for the duration of the renovations without their leases ending or rent increasing as those leases are governed by the RTA and the City has no authority to impose additional requirements on those agreements.” This again is political grandstanding and will only cause more legal chaos and confusion moving forward.
Concluding thoughts
The City of Vancouver’s rental housing policies over the last 10 years have greatly contributed to the current shortfall in supply. Strict and convoluted land-use rules have created chaos and never-ending bureaucracy. A wide array of restrictive anti-growth and anti-market policies have effectively pitted the City and provincial government against the rental industry, including owners of aging, low-density buildings in RM-zoned areas and developers seeking to add stock. With little new inventory, tenants seeking places to live remain stuck. In previous issues going back some 12 years and readily available on the Goodman Report website, we’ve documented a litany of questionable and counterproductive City measures that have greatly contributed to the current crisis.
What is unfolding politically will negatively impact the Vancouver rental apartment market as we know it, despite readily available financing and very strong tenant and investor demand. Whether rejuvenating inefficient and dangerous buildings that often average 60 years old, or developing much-needed new purpose-built stock, all rentals are in peril because of political maneuvering. Only time will tell if Council can understand economic fundamentals and display the fortitude necessary to make informed, balanced decisions. Otherwise, four years from now, the situation may be much worse even than it is today.
“In many cases rent control appears to be the most efficient technique presently known to destroy a city – except for bombing.” - Assar Lindbeck, professor of economics at Stockholm University
Vancouver October 2018
FIVE-BILLION DOLLARS IN NEW RENTAL HOUSING STOCK AT RISK
As Metro Vancouver’s residents gear up for municipal elections, the single most galvanizing issue all voters and politicians can relate to, yet seldom agree on, is that of housing—especially rental housing.
Chronic rental supply shortages plague Vancouver and most of its suburban communities. Each year, CMHC’s Rental Market Report reaffirms to the frustrated aspiring tenant that finding a place to live almost anywhere in the Lower Mainland is frightfully difficult. Whether in Surrey, Maple Ridge, New Westminster or the City of Vancouver itself, vacancy rates stand at 1% or less.
Let’s be clear: the crucial impetus for new rental supply lies exclusively with municipal governments. Acting as gatekeepers, they alone manage the ebb and flow of all development projects, including rentals. For example, despite overwhelming tenant and new development demand, Vancouver recorded only 800 new suites in 2017, with 1,500 expected each year from 2018 to 2020. In the absence of effective government programs, it’s private-sector developers and investors risking their capital who decide on the potential viability and profitability of rental and condo projects.
From research we’ve conducted at the Goodman Report, we’re aware of 20,000 privately funded purpose-built rental units either proposed, approved or under construction in Metro Vancouver. Of these, 8,500 are slated for the City of Vancouver and an additional 11,500 units for surrounding communities. It’s not a given that they’ll all be built, but if they are, they’re all expected to be ready for occupancy within 5 years. The total dollar investments stemming from the private sector for these projects are estimated at whopping $9 billion.
That’s the development backdrop. Now let’s look at some of Vancouver’s election platforms. Mayoral candidates and various tenant organizations touting options such as the 4-year rent freeze, the demonization of landlords, the admonishment of “giant property management companies and speculators (Kevin Griffin, Vancouver Sun, September 12, 2018),” despite their patterns of acting within the laws of the Residential Tenancy Branch, is doing little to instill confidence within the private sector. Some of these same vocal groups, while totally dismissive of established longstanding market forces within the private sector, are urging expanded government involvement in affordable housing. Potentially triggering significant disinvestment, government missteps could perpetuate, if not seriously worsen, the current rental housing crisis and forestall needed solutions.
Investment either in existing rental buildings or in new development projects is typically fickle. These dollars could evaporate almost overnight, given a more onerous political or investment climate. This would undermine private-sector investment and jeopardize proposed market rental development, further exacerbating supply problems.
We urge Metro Vancouver’s politicians and planners to create a practical working environment conducive to the rapid development of new rental stock, both market and social housing. Providing sufficient density, eliminating or reducing development fees and fast tracking the approval process would be a good start.
Vancouver August 2018
So much for the anticipated drop-off in demand and pricing for Metro Vancouver’s rental apartment sector. Despite the B.C. government’s highly publicized efforts to impact real-estate values negatively by extracting tax dollars from almost all known transactions and sources, the market in the first six months of 2018 versus 2017 is very much alive, if not thriving.
The forces behind the rental market’s enduring strength are numerous. The most apparent is that Metro Vancouver’s low unemployment reflects a strong local economy. Tenant demand remains near insatiable, and with the erosion in homeownership affordability, growing numbers of people are resigned to renting. Vacancy rates are tracking less than 1% across many of the region’s urban centres, with rents rising at a rapid clip. Our research indicates that little new rental supply is making its way to the market. Additionally, high in- migration including a record volume of foreign students and low long-term mortgage rates are critical factors underpinning the rental asset class.
The only restraint to greater sales activity is the constrained supply of listings. Eager buyers are readily snapping buildings up at or near market. Of late, however, we observe a growing fickleness on the part of wary investors, who shun certain offerings whose asking price is positioned well above perceived market.
With respect to supply challenges, as evidenced by the modest number of yearly transactions, owners of multifamily rentals are generally a content lot, not typically prone to selling. Many are long-term owners who either self-manage or possess able property management. Furthermore, they’ve been fortunate beneficiaries of extreme value escalation within the past twenty years and are understandably not anxious to cut cheques to the CRA. Thus their business rationale for parting with rewarding rental assets are diverse, often complex. The decision may be triggered by estate planning issues, family dynamics, illness, liquidity requirements caused by trading up, a move away from Metro Vancouver or – of late – offers from developers that are so extraordinarily compelling that a “yes” is a given.
Staying in the loop
Owners of older buildings currently not zoned to benefit from potential development as well as typical apartment owners who stand to reap significant value well over market with immediate development prospects have urged the Goodman Report to continue to provide ongoing status updates of new rental initiatives in their respective communities throughout Metro Vancouver. We’re pleased to furnish this latest information.
What has emerged from our latest internal survey of suburban activity is the staggering success of Coquitlam, with its municipal focus on new rental development. Spurred on by 15 separate projects in the Lougheed and Burquitlam areas, Coquitlam anticipates the addition of 2,402 new rental units. Burnaby, in second place, has 1,700 units in play derived from 8 separate projects, while an aggressive City of North Vancouver campaign now has 15 projects on the go expected to generate 1,336 new rental units.
While most suburban communities have been stellar in their efforts to create new rental housing, Delta, Richmond and White Rock remain most conspicuous in their lack of success in providing a meaningful development environment to address pent-up demand. Meanwhile, despite a vastly higher population, housing programs receiving much ballyhoo and a ten-year head start on new rental construction, Vancouver itself has only 7,316 units in the pipeline: a testament to the less- than-stellar effectiveness and lack of political will of Mayor Robertson’s administration.
April 2018
The market as it relates to multi-family investment can best be described as contradictory.
On one hand, BC’s provincial government under the NDP are now showing their true colours having zealously embarked on a program to curtail demand, and in turn, attempt to make housing more affordable. They are effectively using the blunt instrument of taxation at a number of levels ranging from the imposition of the speculation and school taxes to an increase in the property transfer tax. Early results for Vancouver show dramatic declines in transactions and average prices for single-family homes.
Additionally, this month the government informed us that they are investigating procedures to disallow property transfer tax avoidance as it relates to assets held by a bare trustee. The government also declared their intention to review the Residential Tenancy Act—probably not a good omen for landlords.
And yet, in spite of the heavier tax burden, the rental investment market is active and performing well so far in 2018, with 53 sales to date versus 44 as of the same time period last year (mid-April). Vancouver’s Eastside, the West End as well as Burnaby and New Westminster lead the way in transactions.
However, in spite of strong demand, certain offerings priced well-beyond market are encountering a “cool” reception from investors. In other words, we are seeing heightened sensitivity on pricing. With low cap rates, investors are showing some concern in a rising interest rate environment and are more cautious in how they underwrite rental apartment buildings, often building in some room when financing in order to give a little buffer. Current CMHC insured rates are around 2.90% for 5 years and 3.15% for 10 years. If we look back to December 1st (5 months ago), CMHC insured rates were around 2.50% for 5 years and 2.85% for 10 years. In the last 12 months, the weekly 5-year GoC bond rate has been steadily on the rise, and are double what they were in April 2017.
Tenant demand is strong throughout Metro Vancouver. Many seeking rental housing remain unable or unwilling to own market housing. Long-time tenants are generally fearful of moving to other rental digs as new rent levels for similar housing are typically much higher. As a result, the turnover rate in most buildings has declined significantly—ironically, not what most landlords are seeking.
At present, we are aware of approximately 19,500 new rental units in various stages of development, either being contemplated, approved or under construction in Metro Vancouver—up by approximately 10,000 units since last year. It is expected that all these units will be added to rental inventory by 2002.
W3rd View Property Kitsilano
JUNE 2018
Home sales down, listings up across Metro Vancouver
The Metro Vancouver* housing market saw fewer home buyers and more home sellers in April.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in the region totalled 2,579 in April 2018, a 27.4 per cent decrease from the 3,553 sales recorded in April 2017, and a 2.5 per cent increase compared to March 2018 when 2,517 homes sold.
Last month’s sales were 22.5 per cent below the 10-year April sales average.
“Market conditions are changing. Home sales declined in our region last month to a 17-year April low and home sellers have become more active than we’ve seen in the past three years,” Phil Moore, REBGV president said. “The mortgage requirements that the federal government implemented this year have, among other factors, diminished home buyers’ purchasing power and they’re being felt on the buyer side today.”
There were 5,820 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in April 2018. This represents an 18.6 per cent increase compared to the 4,907 homes listed in April 2017 and a 30.8 per cent increase compared to March 2018 when 4,450 homes were listed.
The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,822, a 25.7 per cent increase compared to April 2017 (7,813) and a 17.2 per cent increase compared to March 2018 (8,380).
“Home buyers have more breathing room this spring. They have more selection to choose from and less demand to compete against,” Moore said.
For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for April 2018 is 26.3 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 14.1 per cent for detached homes, 36.1 per cent for townhomes, and 46.7 per cent for condominiums.
Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,092,000. This represents a 14.3 per cent increase over April 2017 and a 0.7 per cent increase compared to March 2018.
Archived News:
April 2018 News
In August 2016 the BC Liberals brought in the Foreign Buyer's tax. Most Realtors had a record setting beginning of the year so the effects weren't really felt. I rolled into 2017 with lots of momentum and that lasted well into the summer. But looking at the statistics I can see the Detached Home inventories have jumped to record levels, and the Sold numbers have dropped off substantially. The Condo market is the exact opposite. Even with 1 bedroom rents hitting $2000/month in Yaletown, there is no way you can find an investment property in this city that is going to cover itself. I sold a one bedroom, 575 SF Condo, in Yaletown in January for over $710,000. (Third floor, Alley view) With 10% down, Taxes ($1400) and Strata Fees ($250). You would need a minimum of $3300 / Month just to break even. And you would have to self manage.
January 2017
As we roll into 2017 all indications are for a very Strong Spring Market. The lack of product has Buyers back into the frenzy felt this time last year. I was at an Open House at a below average Kitsilano Condo on W 3rd and Maple. This was during one of our cold dark days in early January, and there was a lineup of 15 Buyers with their Agents waiting for the Listing Realtor to show up. It takes a lot to get a Vancouverite out in freezing cold weather ( -4 ) , with snow on the ground, and these brave souls were out in droves. Now that the weather has changed and that dreadful white stuff has disappeared, my Open Houses on W 15th and Alberta St. have been busy and are generating the usual amount of action. Even my Steveston Listing is getting great interest from some local developers now that the chance to re-zone the property is in play. York is next. The prices are still up there and the offers are flying!!
December 2016, Update
The last couple of months have seen the Vancouver market cool off quite a bit. I just pulled up 10 listings in East Vancouver for under $1.0 Million. This has been unheard of since the beginning of this year. One in particular at 4248 Slocan (R2097515), listed at $1,199,000 and Sold on Nov. 12th. for $800,000. Either a screaming deal or a sign of things to come. Another indicator closer to home is 2622 MacKenzie Street (R2122056) listed at an incredible $1,698,000, and Sold in 5 Days for $1,640,000. I haven`t seen anything in Kitsilano for under $2.2 Million all year. Just so you know it`s not a one off sale check out 2735 W8th, (R2097393) a duplex property, zoned RT-8, listed at $1.65 Million on a 33 foot lot. To me this is $300,000 under priced. Actually Sold for $1,628,000, so $22,000 under asking. And just so you know the insanity is still around we have to look at 4620 Langara Ave. (R2123077) in Pt Grey. Listed in early November for $6,388,000 and sold 4 days later for an incredible $8,800,000. Over $2.0 Million over asking. That pretty well sums up Vancouver as we head into 2017 and 4 years of Donald Trump.
FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS!!
September 2016, Update
What a difference a couple of months can make. I never really understood the expectation gap until now. Late Seller's are hanging onto their unattainable expectations, and of course Buyer's are drooling about the upcoming fire sale. (Some of them waiting 20 yrs., and will still be waiting in 2036) The "Realtors" in the mean time are on the sidelines, knowing this crazy market will sort itself out as it always does. With 40,000 people heading towards BC every month, it's not hard to figure out where all of this chaos is heading. Personally I think the next three months will be one of the few times a Buyer can actually pick up a bargain in this city. The Foreign "casino" Buyer's are heading for the exit, some of them probably hurting from one too many flips, but overall a healthy bunch, with plenty of cash to dump on their next target. Good riddance, and lets all hope this city can finally start to reflect realty... Not Likely